Steelers vs. Browns Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday Night Football

The Cleveland Browns will host the Pittsburgh Steelers in one of the least anticipated Thursday Night Football games of the season. Surprisingly, the Browns enter this game with a 2-1 record. The Steelers also have a 2-1 record, but I don’t expect either team to find continued success.

Cleveland’s found wins in their last two games, but they still own a -17 point differential on the season. Pittsburgh isn’t quite as bad, recording a -7 point differential through three games. One team will go 3-1, but there’s very little to love about either team at this point.

We’re looking at two below-average offenses. The Steelers rank 25th in the NFL in points per play (0.279). The Browns have been slightly better, averaging 0.323 points per play, but they’re also below-average in that aspect.

These are teams that rely more on their defenses rather than their offenses. They aren’t elite defenses at this point, but they’ve flashed more. Overall, Pittsburgh ranks 14th in points allowed per play (0.361), while Cleveland ranks 17th in the same category (0.370).

The key to this low of a total will be the red zone. These are two teams that haven’t found much offensive success scoring in the red zone. They both have flashed the ability to force their opponents to kick field goals, though.

The Browns are scoring touchdowns on only 37.5% of their red zone trips, ranking 28th in the NFL. The Steelers have been slightly worse, scoring a touchdown on only 33.3% of their trips. They’re combining to average only 1.7 red zone touchdowns per game this season.

The Steelers have been an elite defense in the red zone, though, allowing opponents to score a touchdown on only 33.3% of their trips. This ranks fourth in the NFL. The Browns rank eighth in this category, allowing a touchdown on only 44.4% of their opponents’ trips.

These have been two defensive teams for quite some time, and there’s very little evidence to suggest that’s going to change in Week 4. Each team will likely find some offensive success, but they aren’t likely to consistently find touchdowns in the red zone.

If this game becomes a defensive struggle, relying on field goals, I prefer the under, even at a low total.
Where to Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers/Cleveland Browns under 38.5 points | -109 at Caesars Sportsbook

2026 NFL Season Betting Record: 3-6