Three Bold Predictions for the 2025 NCAA Tournament

Adam Zielonka|published: Tue 18th March, 08:38 2025

Mar 14, 2025; Nashville, TN, USA; Auburn Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl yells to his team against the Mississippi Rebels during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

How is everyone doing filling out their brackets? Have you consulted every advanced metrics site you can pay for and reached out to your local clairvoyant?

The predictions below won’t help you with your bracket, necessarily, but there’s a method behind the (March) madness. I’ll cover my Final Four picks in a later column, but for now, here are three bold predictions for the NCAA Tournament.

Only 4 SEC teams make the second weekend

The thing about naming a record 14 schools from the same conference to the tournament is that those schools are about to start losing in bunches.

It will prompt retroactive arguments about each team’s worthiness, though it really shouldn’t. A No. 10 seed isn’t suddenly undeserving because it lost to a No. 7. That being said, this qualifies as a bold prediction because of the sheer numbers — it would require 10 SEC teams to lose in the first or second round.

I like Auburn and Florida to sail through pretty easily. Then you can pick two of Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. End of list. I explained Monday why No. 4 seed Texas A&M was ripe for an upset, and Missouri was a great story this season but has a really tough draw with Drake and Texas Tech in its path. Maybe Ole Miss gets by Iowa State in the second round because the Cyclones are down one key player? But at that point, we’re really stretching.

Cooper Flagg won’t be Duke’s leading scorer in the tournament

Oct 4, 2024; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cooper Flagg (2) dribbles the ball against forward Mason Gillis (18) with the ball during Countdown to Craziness at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Even accounting for Flagg’s ankle injury — should that cause him to miss a game or two — I don’t think he’ll lead the Dukies in scoring per game.

When he returns, he’ll get worked back in gradually, and he wasn’t a particularly overused player to begin with — Duke has other weapons.
The Blue Devils have another freshman firing up threes, and his name is Kon Knueppel.

This tournament will be the Wisconsinite’s coming-out party on the level of Jack Gohlke last year. Knueppel has averaged 18.1 points per game and shot 44.2% from deep in his past nine games, much higher than his already respectable season averages. Two of the three worst 3-point defenses in the tourney field happen to be Mississippi State and Baylor. One of those teams will be Duke’s second-round opponent.

A high-major school undergoes a coaching change after elimination

Feb 11, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; UCLA Bruins head coach Mick Cronin reacts during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

There are several big-boy coaching jobs open to start the week, including Indiana, Villanova, Virginia and NC State. But it’s been all quiet on the Western front for some time now — likely because some or all of these schools are about to lure away a head coach currently in the dance.

Brad Brownell of Clemson and Buzz Williams of Texas A&M have been linked to the Indiana job in recent days. Didn’t UCLA coach Mick Cronin sound pretty sick of the California life when complaining about travel back in January? Might he be one to grab a seat on the carousel?

If and when a move like this happens, it will set off a chain of dominoes that could rival last year’s craziness, when John Calipari decamped Kentucky for Arkansas.