Packers vs. Steelers Week 8 Sunday Night Football Top Betting Picks, Predictions

Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers will get a home revenge game against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers have been one of the most surprising teams in the NFL, entering this game with a 4-2 record. The Packers have also found plenty of success, posting a 4-1-1 record thus far.

Both of these teams rank near the top of the NFL in points scored and points allowed per play this season. The big difference is that Green Bay ranks eighth in the league in average margin of victory (+5.5). Pittsburgh only ranks 13th in the same category (+1.7).

Three main aspects of this game point me toward the Packers, even on the road.

First, both teams can pressure opposing quarterbacks at a high rate. They get the job done in different ways, though. Green Bay finds pressure without blitzing at a high rate, giving an edge to their defense. Pittsburgh also pressures opposing quarterbacks at an elite rate, but they blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL.

Both of these quarterbacks, as are virtually everyone in the NFL, are worse when they’re pressured. Jordan Love has been outstanding when blitzed this season, though, and Rodgers doesn’t have the mobility to beat pressure without a blitz.

Second, the Steelers live off of turnovers. They rank third in the NFL in takeaways (1.7) per game, and it’s been one of the main reasons they found some of their wins. The Packers don’t give the ball away, though, as they boast the third-lowest giveaways (0.5) per game in the league.

Last, Pittsburgh is due for regression. The Steelers have looked outstanding in points allowed categories, but that’s because of their ability to take the ball away. They also rank 18th in the NFL in yards allowed (5.4) per play.

Ultimately, all of the advanced metrics point toward Green Bay in this game. I’m not a huge narrative guy, but it would be stupid to ignore Aaron Rodgers’ mindset. He’s the type of player to hold a grudge, and it would make sense that this quickly becomes a difficult game for the Packers.

I believe there’s just too big of a difference in the talent on the rosters. Green Bay will miss Lukas Van Ness, but they still have more than enough talent for their defense to find success. If they take care of the ball, they should find more than enough points to cover this spread.

Where to Bet: Green Bay Packers -3 spread | -102 at DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 13-18