NHL Futures Picks: Best Value Bets for Teams to Miss the Playoffs

We’re at an interesting juncture in the NHL season: teams have played roughly 35% of their schedule and yet there’s hardly any separation in the standings. That’s especially true in the East, where 14 of 16 teams sit within six points of each other. (Kudos to Washington above the pack and… sorry to Buffalo below it.)

So in many ways, it feels like the season is just starting now.

If that's the case, we’re staring at a 50-plus game sprint with a three-week Olympic break right in the middle—a natural reset point. We saw a similar (but shorter) version of this last year during the 4 Nations break, and the Blues exploded out of it and made the playoffs.

With tight standings and another reset coming, anything can happen. But we also have a meaningful sample to assess who these teams really are. Enter Moneypuck, which provides odds on everything from making the playoffs to winning the Cup (spoiler: the Avs are terrifying again). It’s not gospel, but I compared Moneypuck’s data to the actual betting lines at DraftKings and found a couple NHL futures with real value.

Below are the bets, paired with the Moneypuck odds.

NHL Season Stats

Record: 8–17
Units: –8.17

Devils to Not Make the Playoffs +170

Moneypuck: 58.7%

Jack Hughes is the best player on the team—and he’s on the shelf after playing only 17 games. He had 10 goals and 10 assists in those games, by the way. His injury is an odd one from a team dinner involving broken glass. Honestly, that’s more detail than we usually get from NHL injury reporting, which often defaults to “upper-body injury” with no timeline.

Hughes is out for roughly another month. And while losing your star matters, this isn’t the NBA; top forwards play a third of the game and control the puck for a fraction of that.

Beyond that, the Devils simply haven’t been good. They’ve been outscored 2.79 to 3.03 per 60, and they lose the expected-goals battle as well (3.03 to 3.09 per 60). They sit in the massive glob of Eastern Conference teams hovering around the cut line.

I think Moneypuck is slightly low here, but I have it closer to 50/50, which makes +170 on “No” a value play.

What could go right?

Well, they already have Jack and Luke Hughes, and theoretically they could swing a trade for their brother Quinn, who plays on the reeling Canucks. But we’re a long way from the deadline.

Canadiens to Not Make the Playoffs +110

Moneypuck: 63.6%

I’m old enough to remember when the Canadiens were the marquee franchise in the NHL. They should be good—the league is better when they are. They’re still the last Canadian team to win the Cup… but that was over 30 years ago.

Montreal is on the upswing with young stars like Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield, and Ivan Demidov plus productive vets like Nick Suzuki and newcomer Noah Dobson. But they’re getting poor goaltending from both Sam Montembeault and Jakub Dobes, and the team plays just league-average defense in front of them.

Their offensive talent is legit, but it’s a lot to compensate for in the crowded East. I’m buying Moneypuck’s number here.