Joey Chestnut massive favorite to eat way back to Nathan's hot dog title

Field Level Media|published: Thu 3rd July, 21:36 2025

Jan 18, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Joey Chestnut attends 2025 CFP National Championship Media Day at Georgia World Congress Center, Building A. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Joey Chestnut, who has won Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest a record 16 times, is back after being banned last year and is expected by the oddsmakers to secure his 17th title on the Fourth of July in New York.

Out of the 2024 competition in Coney Island due to a sponsorship dispute, Chestnut is a -2500 favorite on BetMGM. Patrick Bertoletti, who won it last year, is the next closest at +1600, followed by Geoffrey Esper at +2200.

"Joey Chestnut is a massive favorite, which has led bettors to wager on other competitors," BetMGM trading strategy manager Halvor Egeland said. "Patrick Bertoletti winning is the worst result for the sportsbook. Chestnut's under hot dogs eaten is the most popular market. I can't claim to be an expert, but I know heat and humidity can have an impact so we will be monitoring (Friday's) weather."

Among the prop wagers on BetMGM, the most popular is Chestnut eating under 71.5 hot dogs, with 86 percent of the money wagered. Bertoletti winning without Chestnut is drawing 92 percent of the money, while on the women's side, 99 percent of the money is on Miki Sudo -- the three-time reigning champion -- eating over 44.5 hot dogs.

--Field Level Media