Bills vs. Falcons Week 6 Monday Night Football Top Betting Picks, Predictions

The Buffalo Bills get a road matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football. Buffalo’s looking to bounce back from a loss to the New England Patriots, entering this game with a 4-1 record. Atlanta’s struggled overall, posting a 2-2 record through four games.

The Bills feature one of the best offenses in the NFL. I don’t truly need to go through the numbers on this. They’re near the top of the NFL in most metrics, and they’ve consistently found offensive success this season.

The key to this play is the positive regression for the Falcons on defense. They rank 20th in points allowed (.413) per play and 16th in points allowed (21.5) per game. Atlanta also ranks fifth in the NFL in yards allowed (4.7) per play.

The metrics suggest that the Falcons' defense is playing better than the points they’ve given up through four weeks. Their defense hasn’t given up more than 27 points in a game this season, and I wouldn’t project a defensive or special teams touchdown for Buffalo.

I’m not entirely sure of what to make of the Atlanta offense against this Bills defense. Buffalo doesn’t have a dominant defense, but they’re numbers are a bit skewed by a 40-point performance by the Baltimore Ravens. Overall, their defense has been drastically better than their numbers suggest.

The Falcons' offense hasn’t been great, but it is due for some positive regression. Some of that came against the Washington Commanders in their last game, and I’m concerned that more comes this week, as they had the bye week to prepare.

Atlanta will be without Darnell Mooney, though, and that’s a big loss for their offense. They could struggle to consistently find big plays without him on the field.

The true reason I like the under in this game is the pace. The Falcons rank 24th in the NFL in seconds per play (30.5). The Bills also slow the pace down in their games, ranking 30th in the same category (31.6).

This is going to be a situation where both teams are looking to limit possessions. They’re going to need to rely on elite efficiency or big plays to beat this high of a number. Both of these teams have proven that they can limit opposing offenses, adding value to the under.

Where to Bet: Buffalo Bills & Atlanta Falcons under 50 points | -110 at Fanatics

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 8-14